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01/29/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 59th edition of the NHL All-Star Game is on tap for today, as Team Alfredsson's hometown favorites take on Team Chara at Ottawa's Scotiabank Place.
This marks the second straight year that the NHL has forgone the Eastern Conference versus Western Conference format and instead employed the fantasy draft process for selecting teams.
The two competing sides were picked Thursday evening at the Casino du Lac- Leamy in Gatineau, Quebec. Longtime Ottawa star Daniel Alfredsson was the captain of one team and fellow Swede and New York Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist was named as his assistant. Boston's Zdeno Chara was chosen to lead the opposition and Toronto's Joffrey Lupul was his assistant captain.
Alfredsson did not disappoint his hometown fans, as the Sens captain made sure to select all three of his All-Star teammates. He and Lundqvist chose Ottawa defenseman Erik Karlsson with their first pick. Alfredsson then took Senators forwards Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek in the second and 12th rounds, respectively.
"I'm obviously very happy to get all the Senators," Alfredsson said. "I wanted to make sure I got Erik and Jason, and unfortunately I had to bump (Milan) down a few spots, but I'm happy to have him, too."
Last year's All-Star Game was in Carolina and the hometown club was captained by Hurricanes forward Eric Staal. That team, which also featured Hurricanes goaltender Cam Ward and forward Jeff Skinner, wound up losing an 11-10 decision to the side selected by Detroit defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom. Neither Staal nor Lidstrom are back for this year's exhibition.
This time around, Alfredsson is hoping the hometown flavor will help lead his team to victory.
"I love my team, and if the coaches can't produce a winner, they should get fired," Alfredsson said jokingly.
Team Alfredsson is led by co-head coaches John Tortorella of the New York Rangers and Todd McLellan of the San Jose Sharks. Chara's team has Boston head coach Claude Julien behind the bench as well as Bruins assistants Doug Houda, Doug Jarvis and Geoff Ward.
Chara, who is captain of the defending Stanley Cup champion Bruins, also claimed his two Boston teammates. After Chara and Lupul took Detroit forward Pavel Datsyuk with the first overall selection, they picked Boston goaltender Tim Thomas in Round 2. Chara then made sophomore sensation Tyler Seguin wait before selecting the young Bruins forward in the 18th round.
"They're well respected, great players [and] everybody's an All-Star," Chara said of his selections.
One change from last year is that the Sedin twins will be on the same side at this year's midseason showcase after Vancouver's inseparable duo were split up at the 2011 All-Star Game. Daniel Sedin was taken by his countryman Alfredsson in the ninth round and Henrik was taken four rounds later.
Team Chara boasts Pittsburgh forward Evgeni Malkin -- the NHL's leading scorer -- and Alfredsson's squad has Tampa Bay's Steven Stamkos, who is pacing the league with 32 goals.
Other forwards selected by Chara were Marian Hossa (Chicago), Corey Perry (Anaheim), Phil Kessel (Toronto), Patrick Kane (Chicago), Jarome Iginla (Calgary), Marian Gaborik (NY Rangers), Jordan Eberle (Edmonton) and Jamie Benn (Dallas). Hossa and Gaborik are both Chara's countrymen from Slovakia.
Joining Chara on the blue line are defensemen Brian Campbell (Florida), Dion Phaneuf (Toronto), Ryan Suter (Nashville), Kimmo Timonen (Philadelphia) and Dennis Wideman (Washington). In addition to Thomas, Jimmy Howard of Detroit and Montreal's Carey Price were also picked as goaltenders for Team Chara.
The rest of Alfredsson's forwards for today's game will be Claude Giroux (Philadelphia), James Neal (Pittsburgh), Scott Hartnell (Philadelphia), Jason Pominville (Buffalo) and Logan Couture (San Jose).
Couture was the last player picked by either team, but he wasn't overly upset by his "Mr. Irrelevant" status. The Sharks sniper received a car for being taken last overall and $20,000 was also donated to charity in his name.
"I can't take that personally," Couture said. "I'm a young guy who plays on the West Coast. When I came in, I knew it was a possibility."
In addition to Karlsson, Team Alfredsson's defense consists of Pittsburgh's Kris Letang, Shea Weber of Nashville, Dan Girardi of the New York Rangers, Phoenix's Keith Yandle and Vancouver's Keith Yandle. Jonathan Quick of Los Angeles and Brian Elliott of St. Louis will also split time in the crease with Lundqvist.
The hometown team won Saturday's SuperSkills competition, as Team Alfredsson gained 21 points compared to Team Chara's 12. However, Chara himself was once again the center of attention as the mammoth Bruins defenseman broke his own record in the hardest shot event, uncorking a slap shot that registered 108.8 miles per hour. It marks the fifth straight time that Chara has won the event.
Ottawa is hosting the NHL All-Star Game for the first time. The only remaining NHL cities that have not staged this event are Anaheim, Phoenix, Nashville, Columbus and Winnipeg.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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